2016 Forward: Impactful Tech Evolution Trends

Having neglected my blog for over one year, now is as good a time as any to update my views on where our tech world is headed and where the best opportunities and greatest risks will be in the economy.  Within Tech, they are evolutionary trends, but in regard to the broader economy and in relation to jobs, they are driving forces. Given this is a blog post, I have chosen to present these in list format so that any curious readers can gain an overview and begin to do their own deep dives into any of the topics they find of interest. The lists were developed from memory over the course of a little over an hour, and if I missed what some would call major omissions, so be it. If you see an item in more than one list, that just means I see it growing in its evolution and significance. There is no science behind my selections, just a boatload of reading, listening to podcasts, and attending lectures from people who I feel are credible in their own research. In a future post, I want to list my influences in terms of sources, and also the books on my reading list. To be fair for now, just think of me as having no original ideas. (humility) Well, of course this is the internet, but most bloggers should probably point this out every so often.

As you might infer from the lists below, my research has been anything but focused. I feel that in 2016 we find ourselves on the precipice of so many major technology-driven transformations that it was impossible for someone like myself not to be overly self-indulgent in better understanding the many trends and their driving forces. If you appreciate the magnitude of what’s coming, you’ll understand I chose the term ‘precipice’ for good reason. Life in 10 to 20 years will be quite different than it is now. Though it may seem to some in 2025 0r 2035 that the evolution was gradual, the impact will probably be lumpy to many.

As has been the case with previous tech driven change, there will be positive and negative impacts, but I believe that the impacts will be felt more soundly by wide swaths of the population than in prior times. Imagine what life will be like the day after cancer is cured. Imagine how many drivers will lose their profession once self-driving vehicles become the norm. Imagine how good you will feel when a high performance pill is taken that has been personalized to your genetic makeup. Imagine the financial markets when the world turns to the bitcoin currency standard. Imagine the perfect prime rib steak being grown in a lab without the collateral damage of bovine methane that contributes to global warming. Imagine the townspeople arriving with their pitchforks as described by Nick Hanauer if  economic disparity is left to grow unmanaged. Then imagine that was only a VR experience you could not distinguish from reality. (RIP, Rowdy Roddy Piper) Imagine being able to solve almost any problem perfectly by buying some cheap AI over the web.  Then imagine the person who you used to pay to solve that problem getting laid off, wondering what they are going to do for income and how they will pay off the loans on their PHD.

I feel that while I have achieved a good overview, the changes will occur in so many disparate disciplines generically from physics to bio-chemical to electrons (affecting so many economic marketplaces) that one would have to be a genius / polymath on the level of a Benjamin Franklin or Edison to claim any level of expertise across the board. At the same time, many of the trends are interrelated; One can draw a circular thread through Genomics, Quantified Self, Farming and Personal Performance for example.  AI will impact just about everything. I liken my own humble understanding of these trends to a Lake Tahoe windsurfer’s awareness of that deepest lake in the US. Still, for those either seeking to define their own new ventures, or seeking an opportunity that has legs be it in a job/career or a startup, or just having the intuition that you need an awareness of upcoming changes presenting risks that are not readily apparent today, I find that the first valuable step to understanding the detail is appreciating the big picture.  Here’s a heads up for you then, the big picture as I see it, with a US bias (not in order of importance):